Missed opportunities was the downfall for the Dodgers on this rainy evening. The Dodgers ended up having 27 at-bats in this game that were above average (1.0) leverage. On the otherhand, the Cardinals only had 9. In those 27 at-bats the Dodger hitters went 3 for 22, with 5 walks. The last 22 Dodgers who batted with a leverage index above 1.0 went 0 for 17 with 4 walks and a sac-fly. The big blow came in the top of the third inning, when Ryan Ludwick clubbed a two run home run. Ludwicks's home run carried a game high WPA of .208, and raised the Cardinals win expectancy from 47% to 67.8%. The Dodgers would come close when Russell Martin led off the bottom of the 4th inning with a double, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 38.9%. Martin was subsequently left on base. Hu would lead off the bottom of the 5th inning with a single, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 34.6%. Martin then led off the bottom of the 6th inning with a walk, giving the Dodgers a win expectancy of 32.6%. The Dodgers would cash in a Hu triple in the bottom of the 7th inning, pulling to within one run of the Cardinals, raising their win expectancy to 28.4%. With one out in the bottom of the 9th inning, and after a one hour rain delay the Dodgers got runners on first and third with two outs. Andruw Jones pinch hit, with the Dodgers win expectancy at 20.6% and a whopping leverage index of 7.31. Jones struck out, ending the game.
Win Expectancy Graph
Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .333 - Adam Wainwright
2nd Highest Game WPA: .241 - Ryan Ludwick
3rd Highest Game WPA: .209 - Ryan Franklin
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 7.31 - Andruw Jones, Bottom 9th, Strike Out.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.96 - Cesar Izturis, Top 2nd, Flied Out.
Largest WPA Play: .208 - Ryan Ludwick, Bottom 2nd, Home Run.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.206 - Andruw Jones, Bottom 9th, Strike Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Andruw Jones, Strike Out (Lose 2-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Andruw Jones, Srike Out (Lose 2-1).