Thursday, May 29, 2008

Viva Las Vargas

Not too much excitement in this game as the Mets jumped out to a 4th inning 6-0 lead, and raised their win expectancy to 96.2% after David Wright's home run that plated the 6th run. The Dodgers would close the gap to 6-4 in the 6th inning raising their win expectancy to 22.4%. A two out strike out of Matt Kemp with runners on first and third killed the 6th inning rally and the Dodgers never had another close look at this game. Dodger manager Joe Torre continued the misuse of talented pitcher HongZhi Guo by bringing him to replace Brad Penny in the 5th inning with the Dodgers win expectancy at 11.8%.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .285 - David Wright
2nd Highest Game WPA: .142 - Claudio Vargas
3rd Highest Game WPA: .136 - Luis Castillo
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.38 - Matt Kemp, Top 6th, Strike Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 1.88 - Carlos Beltran, Bottom 1st, Force Out.
Largest WPA Play: .208 - David Wright, Bottom 3rd, Home Run.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.067 - Matt Kemp, Top 6th, Strike Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 6th, Matt Kemp, Strike Out (Trail 6-4).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Brian Schneider, Single (Lead 8-4).








Performance Under Pressure
Team
AB
Hits
Walks
HRs
Ave
OBP
SLG
OPS
Dodgers
7
1
1
0
.143
.250
.143
.393
Cubs
4
1
0
0
.250
.250
.500
.750

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Start Spreading The Word

Once again the Dodgers lost a close game because they couldn't get any timely hitting and the hitting they did get lacked much of a punch. The Dodgers hit into three double plays, with leverage indexes of 1.54 (R.Martin 6th inning), 1.50 (J.Loney, 2nd inning) and 1.42 (L.Maza, 1st inning). The Dodgers only had one hit in 14 above average leverage situations, and that was Maza's 10th inning leadoff single. Not surprisingly, the two top WPA leaders from this game were the starting pitchers. Derek Lowe posted an impressive WPA of .498 and Carlos Zambrano .311. Alfonso Soriano who had the game winning walk off single in the bottom of the 10th inning, ended the game with a WPA of .265. One interesting and possibly contraversial managerial decision from this game was when Joe Torre had Derek Lowe bat in the top of the 7th inning, with the score tied 1-1, two outs and a runner on third base. Lowe's at-bat carried a leverage index of 1.66 and his subsequent out, lowering the Dodgers win expectancy by 4.6%. Lowe did go on to pitch a scoreless 7th inning, but was it worth sending your pitcher up to bat in such a high leverage situation when he only had one more inning left in him? The Cubs on the otherhand had seven plate appearances with a leverage index greater than three. In those 7 plate appearances, Cubs hitters went 2 for 4, with two walks and a sac-fly.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .498 - Derek Lowe
2nd Highest Game WPA: .311 - Carlos Zambrano
3rd Highest Game WPA: .265 - Alfonso Soriano
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 3.43 - Blake DeWitt, Top 4th, Walk.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 8.78 - Geovony Soto, Bottom 9th, Sac-Fly RBI.
Largest WPA Play: .298 - Alfonso Soriano, Bottom 10th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.133 - Mark DeRosa, Bottom 9th, Fly Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Alfonso Soriano, Single (Win 2-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Alfonso Soriano, Single (Win 2-1).








Performance Under Pressure
Team
AB
Hits
Walks
HRs
Ave
OBP
SLG
OPS
Dodgers
14
1
3 BB,HBP,ERR
0
.071
.176
.071
.247
Cubs
22
6
3
0
.273
.360
.273
.633

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Dropping Like Flies

The Dodgers broke out on top with an RBI single by Blake DeWitt in the top of the 4th inning. DeWitt's leverage index was 2.01 at the time and his RBI raised the Dodgers win expectancy to 61.3%. At the end of 6 innings, with the Dodgers still leading 1-0, the Dodgers win expectancy peaked at 68.9%. The Dodgers would fall apart in the 7th inning. A walk, error and three hits would lead to three Cub runs, putting the Cubs win expectancy at 86.0%. The three biggest blows of the inning were, an RBI single by Aramis Ramirez that put the Cubs up 3-1, a single (with a Dodger error) by Mike Fontenot that tied the game at 1-1 and a single by Alfonso Soriano that put the tying run at third base. Two walks and a single would load the bases for the Dodgers in the top of the 8th inning. With one out and a leverage index at 5.26, James Loney would strike out. Matt Kemp came up next with a leverage index of 5.14 and would hit into an ending inning force out. The Dodgers got a one out pinch hit single from Delwyn Young, giving the Dodgers an 8.9% chance of winning. Kerry Wood then retired the last two batters for the Cubs victory. The Dodgers once again performed awful in high leverage situations, going 2 for 12 with an OPS of .500. The Cubs went 7 for 20, with an OPS of .835 in higher than average leverage situations.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .259 - Sean Gallagher
2nd Highest Game WPA: .250 - Hiroki Kuroda
3rd Highest Game WPA: .173 - Aramis Ramirez
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 5.26 - James Loney, Top 8th, Strike Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 3.87 - Mike Fontenot, Bottom 7th, Single/Error.
Largest WPA Play: .197 - Aramis Ramirez, Bottom 7th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.133 - Matt Kemp, Top 8th, Force Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, James Loney, Strike Out (Trail 3-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 9th, Mark Sweeney, Strike Out (Trail 3-1).








Performance Under Pressure
Team
AB
Hits
Walks
HRs
Ave
OBP
SLG
OPS
Dodgers
12
2
3
0
.167
.333
.167
.500
Cubs
20
7
3
0
.350
.435
.400
.835

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Monday, May 26, 2008

Lost Opportunities

The Dodgers were like a dazed and confused game show contestant today. Behind curtain #1 a first inning leadoff walk. Behind curtain #2, a fourth inning leadoff double. Behind curtain #3, a fifth inning leadoff double. Behind curtain #4, a sixth inning leadoff single. Behind curtain #5, an eighth inning leadoff single and one out double. Look at all of these fabulous prizes that could be won. What is that, you say that I can have what's behind all of these curtains!? All I need is a clutch hit to drive in those runs? Surely, there are many runs to be scored from all of these opportunities? Well, guess again. Clutch hits are hard to come by when the game show is called "Name That Out". The Dodgers had 32 plate appearances today where the leverage index was greater than average. That is a lot of opportunities. The Dodgers managed to OPS .789 in those 32 plate appearances. The problem was, when you take the 6 highest leverage Dodger at-bats, they were 0 for 6. The Cubs on the otherhand, only had 8 plate appearances with a leverage index above the average threshold. In those 8 plate appearances the Cubs managed to OPS 1.214. This number was buoyed by Derrek Lee's first inning two run blast. Another unfortunate occurrence for the Dodgers was when pitcher Chad Billingsley came to bat in the 5th inning, trailing 2-0 at the time, with runners on first and third with only one out. The leverage index for this at-bat was 2.33, a high number that you don't like to see your pitcher bat in.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .348 - Ryan Dempster
2nd Highest Game WPA: .277 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .159 - Juan Pierre
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 6.86 - Delwyn Young, Top 8th, Flied Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 2.35 - Ryan Theriot, Bottom 7th, Force Out.
Largest WPA Play: .204 - Matt Kemp, Top 8th, Double.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.176 - Delwyn Young, Top 8th, Flied Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, Delwyn Young, Flied Out (Trail 3-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 9th, Juan Pierre, Flied Out (Trail 3-1).








Performance Under Pressure
Team
AB
Hits
HRs
Ave
OBP
SLG
OPS
Dodgers
29
9
0
.310
.375
.414
.789
Cubs
7
3
1
.429
.500
.714
1.214

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Kid Kershaw

This was about as even of a game as you could get. Each team would quickly answer the other teams single run. Clayton Kershaw pitched well in his major league debut and managed a .110 WPA. The turning point of the game was when Dodger closer Takashi Saito induced Cardinal outfielder Skip Schumaker to fly out with runners on first and second with two outs and the score tied 3-3 in the top of the 9th inning. The Dodgers would end up winning the game in the bottom of the 10th inning on a walk off single by Andre Ethier that netted him .390 WPA on that one single play. The Dodgers managed to do slightly better than the Cardinals in higher than average leverage situations and that was the difference maker.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .414 - Andre Ethier
2nd Highest Game WPA: .286 - Takashi Saito
3rd Highest Game WPA: .224 - Russell Martin
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 3.86 - Andre Ethier, Bottom 10th, Single.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 4.50 - Skip Schumaker, Top 9th, Fly Out.
Largest WPA Play: .390 - Andre Ethier, Bottom 10th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.117 - Skip Schumaker, Bottom 9th, Fly Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Andre Ethier, Single (Win 4-3).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Andre Ethier, Single (Win 4-3).








Performance Under Pressure
Team
AB
Hits
HRs
Ave
OBP
SLG
OPS
Cardinals
26
7
0
.269
.296
.308
.604
Dodgers
22
7
0
.318
.318
.364
.682

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Silent Bats, Holy Bats

An ugly two out rally in the top of the 3rd inning was the Dodgers downfall tonight. After retiring the first two batters in the 3rd inning, Brad Penny gave up back to back walks followed by a single and two doubles. The single by Chris Duncan carried a WPA of .111. After Duncan's single, Albert Pujols doubled, which carried a WPA of .113. The final nail in the Dodgers coffin was a double by Rick Ankiel, which carried a game high WPA of .133. Ankiel's double lowered the dodgers win expectancy to 15.3%. The four runs the Cardinals scored in the top of the 3rd inning were the only runs of the game. The Dodgers never mounted a serious threat the rest of the game.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .265 - Kyle Lohse
2nd Highest Game WPA: .163 - Rick Ankiel
3rd Highest Game WPA: .093 - Albert Pujols
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 1.88 - Jeff Kent, Bottom 1st, Flied Out.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 1.85 - Chris Duncan, Top 3rd, Single.
Largest WPA Play: .133 - Rick Ankiel, Top 3rd, Double.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.054 - Chin-Long Hu, Bottom 2nd, Ground DP.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 3rd, Rick Ankiel, Double (Lead 4-0).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Chin-Long Hu, Ground Out (Trail 4-0).

Friday, May 23, 2008

Opportunity Knocks, Dodgers Don't Answer

Missed opportunities was the downfall for the Dodgers on this rainy evening. The Dodgers ended up having 27 at-bats in this game that were above average (1.0) leverage. On the otherhand, the Cardinals only had 9. In those 27 at-bats the Dodger hitters went 3 for 22, with 5 walks. The last 22 Dodgers who batted with a leverage index above 1.0 went 0 for 17 with 4 walks and a sac-fly. The big blow came in the top of the third inning, when Ryan Ludwick clubbed a two run home run. Ludwicks's home run carried a game high WPA of .208, and raised the Cardinals win expectancy from 47% to 67.8%. The Dodgers would come close when Russell Martin led off the bottom of the 4th inning with a double, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 38.9%. Martin was subsequently left on base. Hu would lead off the bottom of the 5th inning with a single, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 34.6%. Martin then led off the bottom of the 6th inning with a walk, giving the Dodgers a win expectancy of 32.6%. The Dodgers would cash in a Hu triple in the bottom of the 7th inning, pulling to within one run of the Cardinals, raising their win expectancy to 28.4%. With one out in the bottom of the 9th inning, and after a one hour rain delay the Dodgers got runners on first and third with two outs. Andruw Jones pinch hit, with the Dodgers win expectancy at 20.6% and a whopping leverage index of 7.31. Jones struck out, ending the game.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .333 - Adam Wainwright
2nd Highest Game WPA: .241 - Ryan Ludwick
3rd Highest Game WPA: .209 - Ryan Franklin
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 7.31 - Andruw Jones, Bottom 9th, Strike Out.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.96 - Cesar Izturis, Top 2nd, Flied Out.
Largest WPA Play: .208 - Ryan Ludwick, Bottom 2nd, Home Run.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.206 - Andruw Jones, Bottom 9th, Strike Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Andruw Jones, Strike Out (Lose 2-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Andruw Jones, Srike Out (Lose 2-1).

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Kuroda Lends A Helpful Arm

Striking first, the Reds took a 1-0 lead in the top of the 2nd inning when Edwin Encarnacion singled home Adam Dunn. The Reds enjoyed a 62.8% win expectancy at that time. That would be the peak for the Reds, who would struggle to score any more runs. The Dodgers would tie-up the game and take the lead (2-1) in the bottom of the 2nd inning. The most positive WPA event (0.97) in the Dodgers rally was the no out single by Matt Kemp that moved James Loney over to 3rd base. The 2nd inning would end with the Dodgers leading 2-1 and holding a 61% win expectancy. The Reds would tie the game at 2-2 in the top of the 4th inning. Brandon Phillips doubled and stole 3rd base with one out. The double+steal combo added 0.83 worth of WPA, and after Phillips scored on a sac-fly by Encarnacion, the Dodgers win expectancy was trimmed to 53.3%. In the bottom of the 4th inning, the Dodgers would get singles from DeWitt and Hu. After a walk to Ethier to load the bases, Russell Martin came to the plate with the leverage index at what would turn out to be it's highest level of the game (3.36). The Dodgers would score on the at-bat, on a passed ball of all things. Martin would end up flying out, but the Dodgers found themselves up 3-2 after four innings. The Dodgers would then start flirting with the 80% win expectancy level in the bottom of the 5th inning when Matt Kemp scored on an errant pickoff throw that added 0.93 to the Dodgers win expectancy. The Reds would then get a leadoff man on in the 6th and 7th innings, but nothing materialized each time. Heading into the 7th inning stretch the Dodgers maintained an 88.5% win expectancy. James Loney capped off the scoring with a 7th inning solo homerun, which put the Dodgers win expectancy at 93%. The Dodgers then brought in closer Takashi Saito to pitch the 9th inning, even though the Dodgers win expectancy heading into the 9th was 96.5%. Back to back managerial decisions by Joe Torre to use his closer in a very low leverage save situation.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .249 - Hiroki Kuroda
2nd Highest Game WPA: .175 - Blake DeWitt
3rd Highest Game WPA: .145 - Adam Dunn
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 3.37 - Russell Martin, Bottom 4th, Passed Ball
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.34 - Edward Encarnacion, Top 7th, Ground Out
Largest WPA Play: .106 - Russell Martin, Bottom 4th, Passed Ball
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.092 - Juan Pierre, Bottom 4th, Line Out
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 7th, Joey Votto, Ground Out (Trail 4-2).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, Scott Hatteberg, Srike Out (Trail 5-2).

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Billingsley Dominates

From the 2nd inning on, the Dodgers controlled this game. The two big 2nd inning plays were singles by Loney and Billingsley. Loney's single, put runners at first and third with nobody out. Billingsley's single, drove in the Dodgers second run of the inning. Billingsley's single, rocketed the Dodgers win expectancy up to 81.0%. The Reds would have one sniff at the game, when David Ross lead off the top of the 3rd inning with a single, lowering the Dodgers win expectancy to 66.9%. The Dodgers win expectancy slowly rised and cracked the 90% barrier in the 7th inning. Juan Pierre drove in the Dodgers third run with an RBI single, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 94%. The Reds would tack on one run in the 9th inning off of Joe Beimel. The Dodgers, leading 4-1 then brought in closer Takashi Saito to get the last out of the game. It was one of those odd situations, where the manager brings in his closer because it was a save situation, even though the Dodgers win expectancy was 98.6% at the time. Interesting enough, the Dodgers highest leverage at-bat was Chad Billingsley's 2nd inning at bat. With a leverage index of 2.11, Billingsley drove in a run putting the Dodgers ahead 2-0. On the otherhand, the Reds highest leverage at-bat was Brandon Phillip's 6th inning at-bat, where he hit into a double play. These were two big turning points in the game, and Chad Billingsley came up big in both situations. One with his bat and one with his pitching arm.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .415 - Chad Billingsley
2nd Highest Game WPA: .089 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .088 - James Loney
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.11 - Chad Billingsley, Bottom 2nd, Single
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.56 - Brandon Phillips, Top 6th, Ground DP
Largest WPA Play: .090 - James Loney, Bottom 2nd, Single
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.155 - Brandon Phillips, Top 6th, Ground DP
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 7th, Edward Encarnacion, Popout (Trail 2-0)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Andre Ethier, Single (Lead 4-0).

Monday, May 19, 2008

Dodgers Out DeWitt Reds

Rookie thirdbaseman Blake DeWitt capped off a nice Dodger comeback with a one out bases loaded walk off single in the bottom of the 9th inning. The game winning hit gave DeWitt the game's highest WPA (Win Probability Added) total for the night at .201, just barely beating out Matt Kemp's .199. DeWitt had both the most positive and negative WPA at-bat, charting a WPA of .164 in his walk off at-bat and a -.096 in a second inning rally killing double play ground ball. Brandon Phillips was the Reds biggest contributor, going 4 for 5 with a WPA of .158. Twice, the Dodgers hopes for winning this game looked bleak. The Reds win expectancy peaked at 85.5% in the top of the 3rd inning when Adam Dunn hit a two-run homerun to put the Reds up 4-0. The Dodgers would cut the margin to 4-2, and in the 4th inning the Dodgers win expectancy rose to 36.2% after a Matt Kemp leadoff single. The Dodgers would see that win expectancy number drop to 16.6% in the top of the 5th inning, after an RBI single from Adam Dunn. The Dodgers tied the game in the bottom of the 5th inning and the game remained tied until the bottom of the 9th inning, where Blake DeWitt drove in the winning run with a one out bases loaded single.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .201 - Russel Martin
2nd Highest Game WPA: .199 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .158 - Brandon Phillips
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 5.53 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 9th, Single
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.91 - Joey Votto, Top 9th, Strikeout
Largest WPA Play: .164 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 9th, Single
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.096 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 2nd, Ground DP
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Russel Martin, Single advanced on error (5-5 tie)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Blake DeWitt, Single (6-5 Win).

Lowe Down, Napoli Shines

This game was over early. With one out and the score tied 0-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning Torii Hunter walked and Casey Kotchman singled, raising the Angels win expectancy (WE) to 61.9%. This was the beginning of the end for Derek Lowe and the Dodgers. A fielding error by James Loney netted the Angels their first run and raised their WE to 72.8%. Mike Napoli then delivered the big blow, with a three run home run, which raised the Angels WE to 86.3% (4-0 lead). The Dodgers would make a final stand in the top of the fourth inning. With one out, Jeff Kent singles home two runners, dropping the Angels WE to 72.0%. Matt Kemp would follow Kent's single, with a single of his own, which actually dropped the Angels WE to 67.6%, and that was the closest the Dodgers would get. The Angels would go on to win by a score of 10-2.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .190 - Mike Napoli
2nd Highest Game WPA: .112 - Casey Kotchman
3rd Highest Game WPA: .095 - Erick Aybar
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.34 - Matt Kemp, Top 4th, Struck Out
Highest Angels LI at-bat: 1.82 - Erick Aybar, Bottom 2nd, Error 1B-Loney
Largest WPA Play: .135 - Mike Napoli, Bottom 2nd, 3-Run HR.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.058 - Juan Pierre, Top 1st, Caught Stealing
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 4th, Mike Napoli RBI Single (6-2 lead)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 6th, James Loney, GDIP (7-2 deficit)

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Dodgers Ace Draws A Ten

vs NY Mets, boxscore.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Monday, May 5, 2008

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Streak And Road Trip Over

@ Colorado, boxscore.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Friday, May 2, 2008

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Bats Silent Split Guo Hit

@Cincinnati, Boxscore.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Sunday, April 20, 2008