Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Billingsley Dominates

From the 2nd inning on, the Dodgers controlled this game. The two big 2nd inning plays were singles by Loney and Billingsley. Loney's single, put runners at first and third with nobody out. Billingsley's single, drove in the Dodgers second run of the inning. Billingsley's single, rocketed the Dodgers win expectancy up to 81.0%. The Reds would have one sniff at the game, when David Ross lead off the top of the 3rd inning with a single, lowering the Dodgers win expectancy to 66.9%. The Dodgers win expectancy slowly rised and cracked the 90% barrier in the 7th inning. Juan Pierre drove in the Dodgers third run with an RBI single, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 94%. The Reds would tack on one run in the 9th inning off of Joe Beimel. The Dodgers, leading 4-1 then brought in closer Takashi Saito to get the last out of the game. It was one of those odd situations, where the manager brings in his closer because it was a save situation, even though the Dodgers win expectancy was 98.6% at the time. Interesting enough, the Dodgers highest leverage at-bat was Chad Billingsley's 2nd inning at bat. With a leverage index of 2.11, Billingsley drove in a run putting the Dodgers ahead 2-0. On the otherhand, the Reds highest leverage at-bat was Brandon Phillip's 6th inning at-bat, where he hit into a double play. These were two big turning points in the game, and Chad Billingsley came up big in both situations. One with his bat and one with his pitching arm.

Win Expectancy Graph

Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .415 - Chad Billingsley
2nd Highest Game WPA: .089 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .088 - James Loney
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.11 - Chad Billingsley, Bottom 2nd, Single
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.56 - Brandon Phillips, Top 6th, Ground DP
Largest WPA Play: .090 - James Loney, Bottom 2nd, Single
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.155 - Brandon Phillips, Top 6th, Ground DP
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 7th, Edward Encarnacion, Popout (Trail 2-0)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Andre Ethier, Single (Lead 4-0).

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