Monday, May 19, 2008

Lowe Down, Napoli Shines

This game was over early. With one out and the score tied 0-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning Torii Hunter walked and Casey Kotchman singled, raising the Angels win expectancy (WE) to 61.9%. This was the beginning of the end for Derek Lowe and the Dodgers. A fielding error by James Loney netted the Angels their first run and raised their WE to 72.8%. Mike Napoli then delivered the big blow, with a three run home run, which raised the Angels WE to 86.3% (4-0 lead). The Dodgers would make a final stand in the top of the fourth inning. With one out, Jeff Kent singles home two runners, dropping the Angels WE to 72.0%. Matt Kemp would follow Kent's single, with a single of his own, which actually dropped the Angels WE to 67.6%, and that was the closest the Dodgers would get. The Angels would go on to win by a score of 10-2.

Win Expectancy Graph

Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .190 - Mike Napoli
2nd Highest Game WPA: .112 - Casey Kotchman
3rd Highest Game WPA: .095 - Erick Aybar
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.34 - Matt Kemp, Top 4th, Struck Out
Highest Angels LI at-bat: 1.82 - Erick Aybar, Bottom 2nd, Error 1B-Loney
Largest WPA Play: .135 - Mike Napoli, Bottom 2nd, 3-Run HR.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.058 - Juan Pierre, Top 1st, Caught Stealing
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 4th, Mike Napoli RBI Single (6-2 lead)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 6th, James Loney, GDIP (7-2 deficit)

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