Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Dropping Like Flies

The Dodgers broke out on top with an RBI single by Blake DeWitt in the top of the 4th inning. DeWitt's leverage index was 2.01 at the time and his RBI raised the Dodgers win expectancy to 61.3%. At the end of 6 innings, with the Dodgers still leading 1-0, the Dodgers win expectancy peaked at 68.9%. The Dodgers would fall apart in the 7th inning. A walk, error and three hits would lead to three Cub runs, putting the Cubs win expectancy at 86.0%. The three biggest blows of the inning were, an RBI single by Aramis Ramirez that put the Cubs up 3-1, a single (with a Dodger error) by Mike Fontenot that tied the game at 1-1 and a single by Alfonso Soriano that put the tying run at third base. Two walks and a single would load the bases for the Dodgers in the top of the 8th inning. With one out and a leverage index at 5.26, James Loney would strike out. Matt Kemp came up next with a leverage index of 5.14 and would hit into an ending inning force out. The Dodgers got a one out pinch hit single from Delwyn Young, giving the Dodgers an 8.9% chance of winning. Kerry Wood then retired the last two batters for the Cubs victory. The Dodgers once again performed awful in high leverage situations, going 2 for 12 with an OPS of .500. The Cubs went 7 for 20, with an OPS of .835 in higher than average leverage situations.

Win Expectancy Graph

Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .259 - Sean Gallagher
2nd Highest Game WPA: .250 - Hiroki Kuroda
3rd Highest Game WPA: .173 - Aramis Ramirez
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 5.26 - James Loney, Top 8th, Strike Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 3.87 - Mike Fontenot, Bottom 7th, Single/Error.
Largest WPA Play: .197 - Aramis Ramirez, Bottom 7th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.133 - Matt Kemp, Top 8th, Force Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, James Loney, Strike Out (Trail 3-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 9th, Mark Sweeney, Strike Out (Trail 3-1).

Performance Under Pressure

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

No comments: