Viva Las Vargas

Not too much excitement in this game as the Mets jumped out to a 4th inning 6-0 lead, and raised their win expectancy to 96.2% after David Wright's home run that plated the 6th run. The Dodgers would close the gap to 6-4 in the 6th inning raising their win expectancy to 22.4%. A two out strike out of Matt Kemp with runners on first and third killed the 6th inning rally and the Dodgers never had another close look at this game. Dodger manager Joe Torre continued the misuse of talented pitcher HongZhi Guo by bringing him to replace Brad Penny in the 5th inning with the Dodgers win expectancy at 11.8%.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .285 - David Wright
2nd Highest Game WPA: .142 - Claudio Vargas
3rd Highest Game WPA: .136 - Luis Castillo
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.38 - Matt Kemp, Top 6th, Strike Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 1.88 - Carlos Beltran, Bottom 1st, Force Out.
Largest WPA Play: .208 - David Wright, Bottom 3rd, Home Run.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.067 - Matt Kemp, Top 6th, Strike Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 6th, Matt Kemp, Strike Out (Trail 6-4).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Brian Schneider, Single (Lead 8-4).

Performance Under Pressure
Team	AB	Hits	Walks	HRs	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dodgers	7	1	1	0	.143	.250	.143	.393
Cubs	4	1	0	0	.250	.250	.500	.750

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Start Spreading The Word

Once again the Dodgers lost a close game because they couldn't get any timely hitting and the hitting they did get lacked much of a punch. The Dodgers hit into three double plays, with leverage indexes of 1.54 (R.Martin 6th inning), 1.50 (J.Loney, 2nd inning) and 1.42 (L.Maza, 1st inning). The Dodgers only had one hit in 14 above average leverage situations, and that was Maza's 10th inning leadoff single. Not surprisingly, the two top WPA leaders from this game were the starting pitchers. Derek Lowe posted an impressive WPA of .498 and Carlos Zambrano .311. Alfonso Soriano who had the game winning walk off single in the bottom of the 10th inning, ended the game with a WPA of .265. One interesting and possibly contraversial managerial decision from this game was when Joe Torre had Derek Lowe bat in the top of the 7th inning, with the score tied 1-1, two outs and a runner on third base. Lowe's at-bat carried a leverage index of 1.66 and his subsequent out, lowering the Dodgers win expectancy by 4.6%. Lowe did go on to pitch a scoreless 7th inning, but was it worth sending your pitcher up to bat in such a high leverage situation when he only had one more inning left in him? The Cubs on the otherhand had seven plate appearances with a leverage index greater than three. In those 7 plate appearances, Cubs hitters went 2 for 4, with two walks and a sac-fly.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .498 - Derek Lowe
2nd Highest Game WPA: .311 - Carlos Zambrano
3rd Highest Game WPA: .265 - Alfonso Soriano
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 3.43 - Blake DeWitt, Top 4th, Walk.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 8.78 - Geovony Soto, Bottom 9th, Sac-Fly RBI.
Largest WPA Play: .298 - Alfonso Soriano, Bottom 10th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.133 - Mark DeRosa, Bottom 9th, Fly Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Alfonso Soriano, Single (Win 2-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Alfonso Soriano, Single (Win 2-1).

Performance Under Pressure
Team	AB	Hits	Walks	HRs	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dodgers	14	1	3 BB,HBP,ERR	0	.071	.176	.071	.247
Cubs	22	6	3	0	.273	.360	.273	.633

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Dropping Like Flies

The Dodgers broke out on top with an RBI single by Blake DeWitt in the top of the 4th inning. DeWitt's leverage index was 2.01 at the time and his RBI raised the Dodgers win expectancy to 61.3%. At the end of 6 innings, with the Dodgers still leading 1-0, the Dodgers win expectancy peaked at 68.9%. The Dodgers would fall apart in the 7th inning. A walk, error and three hits would lead to three Cub runs, putting the Cubs win expectancy at 86.0%. The three biggest blows of the inning were, an RBI single by Aramis Ramirez that put the Cubs up 3-1, a single (with a Dodger error) by Mike Fontenot that tied the game at 1-1 and a single by Alfonso Soriano that put the tying run at third base. Two walks and a single would load the bases for the Dodgers in the top of the 8th inning. With one out and a leverage index at 5.26, James Loney would strike out. Matt Kemp came up next with a leverage index of 5.14 and would hit into an ending inning force out. The Dodgers got a one out pinch hit single from Delwyn Young, giving the Dodgers an 8.9% chance of winning. Kerry Wood then retired the last two batters for the Cubs victory. The Dodgers once again performed awful in high leverage situations, going 2 for 12 with an OPS of .500. The Cubs went 7 for 20, with an OPS of .835 in higher than average leverage situations.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .259 - Sean Gallagher
2nd Highest Game WPA: .250 - Hiroki Kuroda
3rd Highest Game WPA: .173 - Aramis Ramirez
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 5.26 - James Loney, Top 8th, Strike Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 3.87 - Mike Fontenot, Bottom 7th, Single/Error.
Largest WPA Play: .197 - Aramis Ramirez, Bottom 7th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.133 - Matt Kemp, Top 8th, Force Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, James Loney, Strike Out (Trail 3-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 9th, Mark Sweeney, Strike Out (Trail 3-1).

Performance Under Pressure
Team	AB	Hits	Walks	HRs	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dodgers	12	2	3	0	.167	.333	.167	.500
Cubs	20	7	3	0	.350	.435	.400	.835

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Lost Opportunities

The Dodgers were like a dazed and confused game show contestant today. Behind curtain #1 a first inning leadoff walk. Behind curtain #2, a fourth inning leadoff double. Behind curtain #3, a fifth inning leadoff double. Behind curtain #4, a sixth inning leadoff single. Behind curtain #5, an eighth inning leadoff single and one out double. Look at all of these fabulous prizes that could be won. What is that, you say that I can have what's behind all of these curtains!? All I need is a clutch hit to drive in those runs? Surely, there are many runs to be scored from all of these opportunities? Well, guess again. Clutch hits are hard to come by when the game show is called "Name That Out". The Dodgers had 32 plate appearances today where the leverage index was greater than average. That is a lot of opportunities. The Dodgers managed to OPS .789 in those 32 plate appearances. The problem was, when you take the 6 highest leverage Dodger at-bats, they were 0 for 6. The Cubs on the otherhand, only had 8 plate appearances with a leverage index above the average threshold. In those 8 plate appearances the Cubs managed to OPS 1.214. This number was buoyed by Derrek Lee's first inning two run blast. Another unfortunate occurrence for the Dodgers was when pitcher Chad Billingsley came to bat in the 5th inning, trailing 2-0 at the time, with runners on first and third with only one out. The leverage index for this at-bat was 2.33, a high number that you don't like to see your pitcher bat in.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .348 - Ryan Dempster
2nd Highest Game WPA: .277 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .159 - Juan Pierre
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 6.86 - Delwyn Young, Top 8th, Flied Out.
Highest Cubs LI at-bat: 2.35 - Ryan Theriot, Bottom 7th, Force Out.
Largest WPA Play: .204 - Matt Kemp, Top 8th, Double.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.176 - Delwyn Young, Top 8th, Flied Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, Delwyn Young, Flied Out (Trail 3-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 9th, Juan Pierre, Flied Out (Trail 3-1).

Performance Under Pressure
Team	AB	Hits	HRs	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dodgers	29	9	0	.310	.375	.414	.789
Cubs	7	3	1	.429	.500	.714	1.214

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Kid Kershaw

This was about as even of a game as you could get. Each team would quickly answer the other teams single run. Clayton Kershaw pitched well in his major league debut and managed a .110 WPA. The turning point of the game was when Dodger closer Takashi Saito induced Cardinal outfielder Skip Schumaker to fly out with runners on first and second with two outs and the score tied 3-3 in the top of the 9th inning. The Dodgers would end up winning the game in the bottom of the 10th inning on a walk off single by Andre Ethier that netted him .390 WPA on that one single play. The Dodgers managed to do slightly better than the Cardinals in higher than average leverage situations and that was the difference maker.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .414 - Andre Ethier
2nd Highest Game WPA: .286 - Takashi Saito
3rd Highest Game WPA: .224 - Russell Martin
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 3.86 - Andre Ethier, Bottom 10th, Single.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 4.50 - Skip Schumaker, Top 9th, Fly Out.
Largest WPA Play: .390 - Andre Ethier, Bottom 10th, Single.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.117 - Skip Schumaker, Bottom 9th, Fly Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Andre Ethier, Single (Win 4-3).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 10th, Andre Ethier, Single (Win 4-3).

Performance Under Pressure
Team	AB	Hits	HRs	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cardinals	26	7	0	.269	.296	.308	.604
Dodgers	22	7	0	.318	.318	.364	.682

Note: This study looks at all plate appearances in situations that have an above average leverage index (average is 1.00).

Silent Bats, Holy Bats

An ugly two out rally in the top of the 3rd inning was the Dodgers downfall tonight. After retiring the first two batters in the 3rd inning, Brad Penny gave up back to back walks followed by a single and two doubles. The single by Chris Duncan carried a WPA of .111. After Duncan's single, Albert Pujols doubled, which carried a WPA of .113. The final nail in the Dodgers coffin was a double by Rick Ankiel, which carried a game high WPA of .133. Ankiel's double lowered the dodgers win expectancy to 15.3%. The four runs the Cardinals scored in the top of the 3rd inning were the only runs of the game. The Dodgers never mounted a serious threat the rest of the game.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .265 - Kyle Lohse
2nd Highest Game WPA: .163 - Rick Ankiel
3rd Highest Game WPA: .093 - Albert Pujols
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 1.88 - Jeff Kent, Bottom 1st, Flied Out.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 1.85 - Chris Duncan, Top 3rd, Single.
Largest WPA Play: .133 - Rick Ankiel, Top 3rd, Double.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.054 - Chin-Long Hu, Bottom 2nd, Ground DP.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 3rd, Rick Ankiel, Double (Lead 4-0).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Chin-Long Hu, Ground Out (Trail 4-0).

Opportunity Knocks, Dodgers Don't Answer

Missed opportunities was the downfall for the Dodgers on this rainy evening. The Dodgers ended up having 27 at-bats in this game that were above average (1.0) leverage. On the otherhand, the Cardinals only had 9. In those 27 at-bats the Dodger hitters went 3 for 22, with 5 walks. The last 22 Dodgers who batted with a leverage index above 1.0 went 0 for 17 with 4 walks and a sac-fly. The big blow came in the top of the third inning, when Ryan Ludwick clubbed a two run home run. Ludwicks's home run carried a game high WPA of .208, and raised the Cardinals win expectancy from 47% to 67.8%. The Dodgers would come close when Russell Martin led off the bottom of the 4th inning with a double, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 38.9%. Martin was subsequently left on base. Hu would lead off the bottom of the 5th inning with a single, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 34.6%. Martin then led off the bottom of the 6th inning with a walk, giving the Dodgers a win expectancy of 32.6%. The Dodgers would cash in a Hu triple in the bottom of the 7th inning, pulling to within one run of the Cardinals, raising their win expectancy to 28.4%. With one out in the bottom of the 9th inning, and after a one hour rain delay the Dodgers got runners on first and third with two outs. Andruw Jones pinch hit, with the Dodgers win expectancy at 20.6% and a whopping leverage index of 7.31. Jones struck out, ending the game.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .333 - Adam Wainwright
2nd Highest Game WPA: .241 - Ryan Ludwick
3rd Highest Game WPA: .209 - Ryan Franklin
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 7.31 - Andruw Jones, Bottom 9th, Strike Out.
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.96 - Cesar Izturis, Top 2nd, Flied Out.
Largest WPA Play: .208 - Ryan Ludwick, Bottom 2nd, Home Run.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.206 - Andruw Jones, Bottom 9th, Strike Out.
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Andruw Jones, Strike Out (Lose 2-1).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Andruw Jones, Srike Out (Lose 2-1).