Dodgers Out DeWitt Reds

Rookie thirdbaseman Blake DeWitt capped off a nice Dodger comeback with a one out bases loaded walk off single in the bottom of the 9th inning. The game winning hit gave DeWitt the game's highest WPA (Win Probability Added) total for the night at .201, just barely beating out Matt Kemp's .199. DeWitt had both the most positive and negative WPA at-bat, charting a WPA of .164 in his walk off at-bat and a -.096 in a second inning rally killing double play ground ball. Brandon Phillips was the Reds biggest contributor, going 4 for 5 with a WPA of .158. Twice, the Dodgers hopes for winning this game looked bleak. The Reds win expectancy peaked at 85.5% in the top of the 3rd inning when Adam Dunn hit a two-run homerun to put the Reds up 4-0. The Dodgers would cut the margin to 4-2, and in the 4th inning the Dodgers win expectancy rose to 36.2% after a Matt Kemp leadoff single. The Dodgers would see that win expectancy number drop to 16.6% in the top of the 5th inning, after an RBI single from Adam Dunn. The Dodgers tied the game in the bottom of the 5th inning and the game remained tied until the bottom of the 9th inning, where Blake DeWitt drove in the winning run with a one out bases loaded single.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .201 - Russel Martin
2nd Highest Game WPA: .199 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .158 - Brandon Phillips
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 5.53 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 9th, Single
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.91 - Joey Votto, Top 9th, Strikeout
Largest WPA Play: .164 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 9th, Single
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.096 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 2nd, Ground DP
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Russel Martin, Single advanced on error (5-5 tie)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Blake DeWitt, Single (6-5 Win).

Lowe Down, Napoli Shines

This game was over early. With one out and the score tied 0-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning Torii Hunter walked and Casey Kotchman singled, raising the Angels win expectancy (WE) to 61.9%. This was the beginning of the end for Derek Lowe and the Dodgers. A fielding error by James Loney netted the Angels their first run and raised their WE to 72.8%. Mike Napoli then delivered the big blow, with a three run home run, which raised the Angels WE to 86.3% (4-0 lead). The Dodgers would make a final stand in the top of the fourth inning. With one out, Jeff Kent singles home two runners, dropping the Angels WE to 72.0%. Matt Kemp would follow Kent's single, with a single of his own, which actually dropped the Angels WE to 67.6%, and that was the closest the Dodgers would get. The Angels would go on to win by a score of 10-2.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .190 - Mike Napoli
2nd Highest Game WPA: .112 - Casey Kotchman
3rd Highest Game WPA: .095 - Erick Aybar
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.34 - Matt Kemp, Top 4th, Struck Out
Highest Angels LI at-bat: 1.82 - Erick Aybar, Bottom 2nd, Error 1B-Loney
Largest WPA Play: .135 - Mike Napoli, Bottom 2nd, 3-Run HR.
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.058 - Juan Pierre, Top 1st, Caught Stealing
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 4th, Mike Napoli RBI Single (6-2 lead)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 6th, James Loney, GDIP (7-2 deficit)