Kuroda Lends A Helpful Arm

Striking first, the Reds took a 1-0 lead in the top of the 2nd inning when Edwin Encarnacion singled home Adam Dunn. The Reds enjoyed a 62.8% win expectancy at that time. That would be the peak for the Reds, who would struggle to score any more runs. The Dodgers would tie-up the game and take the lead (2-1) in the bottom of the 2nd inning. The most positive WPA event (0.97) in the Dodgers rally was the no out single by Matt Kemp that moved James Loney over to 3rd base. The 2nd inning would end with the Dodgers leading 2-1 and holding a 61% win expectancy. The Reds would tie the game at 2-2 in the top of the 4th inning. Brandon Phillips doubled and stole 3rd base with one out. The double+steal combo added 0.83 worth of WPA, and after Phillips scored on a sac-fly by Encarnacion, the Dodgers win expectancy was trimmed to 53.3%. In the bottom of the 4th inning, the Dodgers would get singles from DeWitt and Hu. After a walk to Ethier to load the bases, Russell Martin came to the plate with the leverage index at what would turn out to be it's highest level of the game (3.36). The Dodgers would score on the at-bat, on a passed ball of all things. Martin would end up flying out, but the Dodgers found themselves up 3-2 after four innings. The Dodgers would then start flirting with the 80% win expectancy level in the bottom of the 5th inning when Matt Kemp scored on an errant pickoff throw that added 0.93 to the Dodgers win expectancy. The Reds would then get a leadoff man on in the 6th and 7th innings, but nothing materialized each time. Heading into the 7th inning stretch the Dodgers maintained an 88.5% win expectancy. James Loney capped off the scoring with a 7th inning solo homerun, which put the Dodgers win expectancy at 93%. The Dodgers then brought in closer Takashi Saito to pitch the 9th inning, even though the Dodgers win expectancy heading into the 9th was 96.5%. Back to back managerial decisions by Joe Torre to use his closer in a very low leverage save situation.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .249 - Hiroki Kuroda
2nd Highest Game WPA: .175 - Blake DeWitt
3rd Highest Game WPA: .145 - Adam Dunn
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 3.37 - Russell Martin, Bottom 4th, Passed Ball
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.34 - Edward Encarnacion, Top 7th, Ground Out
Largest WPA Play: .106 - Russell Martin, Bottom 4th, Passed Ball
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.092 - Juan Pierre, Bottom 4th, Line Out
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 7th, Joey Votto, Ground Out (Trail 4-2).
95% WPA Threshold moment: Top 8th, Scott Hatteberg, Srike Out (Trail 5-2).

Billingsley Dominates

From the 2nd inning on, the Dodgers controlled this game. The two big 2nd inning plays were singles by Loney and Billingsley. Loney's single, put runners at first and third with nobody out. Billingsley's single, drove in the Dodgers second run of the inning. Billingsley's single, rocketed the Dodgers win expectancy up to 81.0%. The Reds would have one sniff at the game, when David Ross lead off the top of the 3rd inning with a single, lowering the Dodgers win expectancy to 66.9%. The Dodgers win expectancy slowly rised and cracked the 90% barrier in the 7th inning. Juan Pierre drove in the Dodgers third run with an RBI single, raising the Dodgers win expectancy to 94%. The Reds would tack on one run in the 9th inning off of Joe Beimel. The Dodgers, leading 4-1 then brought in closer Takashi Saito to get the last out of the game. It was one of those odd situations, where the manager brings in his closer because it was a save situation, even though the Dodgers win expectancy was 98.6% at the time. Interesting enough, the Dodgers highest leverage at-bat was Chad Billingsley's 2nd inning at bat. With a leverage index of 2.11, Billingsley drove in a run putting the Dodgers ahead 2-0. On the otherhand, the Reds highest leverage at-bat was Brandon Phillip's 6th inning at-bat, where he hit into a double play. These were two big turning points in the game, and Chad Billingsley came up big in both situations. One with his bat and one with his pitching arm.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .415 - Chad Billingsley
2nd Highest Game WPA: .089 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .088 - James Loney
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 2.11 - Chad Billingsley, Bottom 2nd, Single
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.56 - Brandon Phillips, Top 6th, Ground DP
Largest WPA Play: .090 - James Loney, Bottom 2nd, Single
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.155 - Brandon Phillips, Top 6th, Ground DP
80% WPA Threshold moment: Top 7th, Edward Encarnacion, Popout (Trail 2-0)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 7th, Andre Ethier, Single (Lead 4-0).

Dodgers Out DeWitt Reds

Rookie thirdbaseman Blake DeWitt capped off a nice Dodger comeback with a one out bases loaded walk off single in the bottom of the 9th inning. The game winning hit gave DeWitt the game's highest WPA (Win Probability Added) total for the night at .201, just barely beating out Matt Kemp's .199. DeWitt had both the most positive and negative WPA at-bat, charting a WPA of .164 in his walk off at-bat and a -.096 in a second inning rally killing double play ground ball. Brandon Phillips was the Reds biggest contributor, going 4 for 5 with a WPA of .158. Twice, the Dodgers hopes for winning this game looked bleak. The Reds win expectancy peaked at 85.5% in the top of the 3rd inning when Adam Dunn hit a two-run homerun to put the Reds up 4-0. The Dodgers would cut the margin to 4-2, and in the 4th inning the Dodgers win expectancy rose to 36.2% after a Matt Kemp leadoff single. The Dodgers would see that win expectancy number drop to 16.6% in the top of the 5th inning, after an RBI single from Adam Dunn. The Dodgers tied the game in the bottom of the 5th inning and the game remained tied until the bottom of the 9th inning, where Blake DeWitt drove in the winning run with a one out bases loaded single.



Win Expectancy Graph



Win Expectancy / Leverage Index (Game Landmarks)
1st Highest Game WPA: .201 - Russel Martin
2nd Highest Game WPA: .199 - Matt Kemp
3rd Highest Game WPA: .158 - Brandon Phillips
Highest Dodgers LI at-bat: 5.53 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 9th, Single
Highest Reds LI at-bat: 2.91 - Joey Votto, Top 9th, Strikeout
Largest WPA Play: .164 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 9th, Single
Largest Negative WPA Play: -.096 - Blake DeWitt, Bottom 2nd, Ground DP
80% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Russel Martin, Single advanced on error (5-5 tie)
95% WPA Threshold moment: Bottom 9th, Blake DeWitt, Single (6-5 Win).